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Where We Are Now

By Ron Kuby
Flickr: Creative Commons by jetheriot
Every poll, every poll of polls, every poll of polls of polls, shows Barack Obama's lead, particularly in the electoral college, to be sufficient to win the election. Some by a landslide, some by a smaller margin, but all concur--if the polls are accurate, Obama is the next President of the United States. The McCain camp sees the same thing (and presumably has internal polling that is just as dismal). That accounts for their increasingly ugly and desperate attacks on character and patriotism. But those attacks do not seem to be working (although they might have worked were we not in an economic crisis). So let's talk frankly about some of the things that would alter the race.
1. There is one debate left. McCain could perform brilliantly, and Obama could self-destruct by calling for jihad against America or by announcing that he, at the age of 8, did join the Weather Underground Organization. I rate this as close to impossible (for the former) and impossible (for the latter).

2. Barack Obama could be killed. I do not for a moment believe that the McCain camp desires such a thing. But I cannot believe that they are ignorant of the increasingly venomous response of some of their angrier, more weak-minded supporters. We will have to trust the Secret Service on this one. I think that some attempt on Obama's life is certainly possible, but the likelihood of success is small. As we have seen, it is a lot harder to kill a President or Presidential candidate than it looks in the movies.

3. The "Bradley effect." My feeling is that this is a non-starter. The times have changed dramatically over the years, and race, especially for people under 40, is less of a factor than I could ever have imagined in America. I think most of the people who say they will vote for Obama will vote for Obama. For the diminishing number of undecided voters, race may play a role, but they will probably not be a force of sufficient size to sway the race.

4. External events. A terrorist attack on America. Israel attacking Iran. The McCain "I know how to capture Bin Laden strategy" actually being communicated to the military and they get the guy and credit McCain.

Well?

Comments

(27)

#2...

That is what the fringe of the GOP is 'secretly' hoping for. BTW... it would ensure a Bush dictatorship.

PITCHFORKS AND TORCHES!!
YES...I'M PISSED...AREN'T YOU??

By roadgoddessOctober 10, 2008 - 2:15pm

Republicans have been attacking America

Sorry, I don't have much confidence in the Secret Service. I know of at least two times they dismantled metal detectors and stopped checking people. One was at a rally in Dallas where there were 17 thousand people. Dallas of all places. When the Chief of Police asked the Secret Service who gave the order to remove the metal detectors, they would only answer the order came from "higher up". Why doesn't that surprise me?

Republicans have led this country into two terrible mismanaged wars, ripped off the middle class; they show no remorse in their dereliction after Katrina or the most recent hurricane. They let the greatest mass murderer in US history go scott free. They have used Iraq as their own personal money machine while supporting the destruction of Christianity in Iraq. They have voted again and again against our troops. They have let our infra structure fall apart. They have attempted to replace science with mysticism. They are racist. They are homophobic. They have mangled the Justice Department. They have driven away scientists from government. The Republican Party has degenerated into an unrecognizable mess from when it was called, "The party of ideas".

It’s absurd to think that we can survive without scientists. When McCain and Palin talk about building nuclear reactors, they don’t even know how to pronounce the word. Who is going to build and manage them? Remember, they don’t even believe in science.

Republicans have lost their collective minds.

By deanrddOctober 10, 2008 - 2:25pm

May I say

deanrdd, I love the way you lay out the truth! !
You are accurate & concise.
My compliments.

By nobush3peatOctober 10, 2008 - 3:00pm

Did you know that Barrack means blessed or that Hussein's

origin is good looking? And right wingers want you to think that his names mean something weird and his names are even proof he's a secret Muslim. They yell out terrorist and "kill him". I can see slack jawwed McCain/Palin zealots right now,"His name probably doesnt even mean that.". Fuckwits.

The only thing more revealing about the right wing this election, would be if McCain/Palin supporters actually, when they'd find out we were Liberals, they actually pointed at us and screamed like a Tornado siren.

http://search.live.com/video/results.aspx?q=Body+Snatchers+&docid=266077...

extended....

http://search.live.com/video/results.aspx?q=body+snatchers+&first=61&doc...

By MadgardnerOctober 10, 2008 - 2:35pm

even after obama is elected

i suspect... in fact, expect some sort of violence, unrest, and/or dissidence on the part of the more rabid jingos and republican supporters. not the educated repubs with a different set of economic values, im not worried about them going nuts... its more the soapbox ideologists I think will turn to violence and unrest to make themselves heard.

I can tell you this... if Obama DOESN'T win and there's even the hint of "the fix" being in, I predict that there ARE going to be some VERY violent times ahead.

Consider the economic situation, there are going to be a lot of people out there who don't feel they have very much to lose... it could be the perfect storm to create a very high level of civil unrest and potentially even outright revolt. I mean, I'm doing OK, but I lost literally ONE HALF my 401k during this crisis... there must be a lot of people out there who have lost a lot more than me.

I just hope cooler heads prevail (they won't) and we are able to pull out of this nose dive.

By DantebenutoOctober 10, 2008 - 2:40pm

Forgot one under #4

Bush produces bin Laden from the Navy sub where he's been held since 9/11. Intense public adulation leads to a landslide for Crash.

Or not. Maybe the repukes really are as stupid as they look.

You don't have to burn books to destroy a culture. Just get people to stop reading them.
---Ray Bradbury

By LiberalIconoclastOctober 10, 2008 - 2:51pm

Yeah, Obama is ahead right

Yeah, Obama is ahead right now in the polls, but to say he is "winning" is reading too much into the polls. This talk of Obama having such a huge lead that it might as well be over is nothing more than an attempt to get McCain supporters to sit out the election. Are you on Obama's payroll like ACORN, Ron?

BTW, John Kerry had a similar lead in the polls in the beginning of November, how'd that one turn out?

Oh, one more thing, I keep hearing this bullshit about the people yelling for violence. They are democrat plants. The dem party has been using this tactic more than ever during this election. Democrats posing as undecided voters, democrats feeding audience members questions to ask their candidate. The guy that told Hillary to knit him a sweater, yeah, he was planted in the crowd by the Clinton campaign. So when you see someone in a crowd proposing a violent act be taken against Obama, you can be pretty sure it is a democrat just trying to demonize the republican crowd they infiltrated. Only idiots are falling for the act.

By 96815October 10, 2008 - 2:54pm

Democratic plants? Good one.

.
So far, during this election, the Republicans do that "Chicken Little" yell of "falling sky" and "Muslim" and "secret agenda".

Obama has two daughters. He wants a strong and safe country for his children at the very least. He is the American success story. He made it here. These incredible and far out scenarios the Republicans keep manufacturing don't make sense. Only an intellectually malnourished base could possibly believe these extravagant claims.

Republican intellectuals are leaving the party. The party is no longer attracting "smart" people. Because smart = elite. Republicans know for sure they don’t want any “elite”. Well, they don’t have to worry. They’re gone. They can’t see the forest for their colon.

By deanrddOctober 10, 2008 - 3:09pm

BWAHAHAHAHA!

Let's look at his argument. According to electoral-vote.com, this day in 2004 Bush and Kerry were just about tied. Obama is currently ahead by eleven national points and 159 electoral votes when looking at the state polls.

The whole Democratic-plant and liberal-media-conspiracy thing. Well, it IS Toadshit we're talking about here.

Face it, republosers:


It's Crash McTorture's swan song!

You don't have to burn books to destroy a culture. Just get people to stop reading them.
---Ray Bradbury

By LiberalIconoclastOctober 10, 2008 - 3:24pm

By LiberalIconoclastOctober 10, 2008 - 4:24pm

LOL

By f u bush2October 10, 2008 - 3:48pm

Lol, it's nice of you to try

Lol, it's nice of you to try to change what I said before arguing against it! I said Kerry had a lead in the beginning of November, not on October 10th. My whole point was that the polls swing the most at the end, which they do. Saying it's over is just a game, it's far from over. Scroll through the dates on http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct10.html, there were 8 lead changes in the last month of the election with leads as high as 70 going in both directions. John Kerry led 298-231 on the first of November (which is what I ACTUALLY said, not what you adjusted my claim to be to make it easier for you to argue against), and Bush didn't get his final poll lead in electoral votes until just days before the actual election. So I wouldn't be so sure that Obama is going to hold on to his lead for the next month if I were you. You guys are just playing a game here, and you aren't fooling anyone but yourselves.

Oh yeah, where'd you get THAT picture from?? Are you being a little more careful with your selection of sources now?

By 96815October 10, 2008 - 9:58pm

HEY, J. FROGGATT!... ALOHA!


GO HIDE IN YOUR GUN SAFE, SHITBAG!

=======================

Remember THIS, froggy?:

"You're way of life is OVER!... Get out your fucking checkbook... TIME TO PAY FOR YOUR SINS." - AG

Ring a bell?...Eh, shitbag??

=======================

This is just the BEGINNING of countless archived "I TOLD YOU SOs" I've saved to throw back in the face of assholes like you.

FOR YEARS, I've been right and you've been wrong.

By A GOctober 10, 2008 - 3:57pm

To expand...

-Did you know that Barrack means blessed or that Hussein's
origin is good looking? -

Hate the Game. Not the Player.

By MadgardnerOctober 10, 2008 - 3:26pm

It's over

I know it's over like I knew it was over in the primary.

Now is the time to set it in the public consciousness that it is over. The public should realize that it's over so that irregularities in the vote count, should they occur, are a shock.

Spread the word that it's over. Be confident. Spread the confidence. As the public realizes it's over, the election will become more and more of a landslide.

Don't throw your vote away. McCain can't win. Why vote for him?

By f u bush2October 10, 2008 - 3:35pm

the right wing machine is at its wit's ends

i'm certainly of the belief that what we're seeing coming out from the Mccain camp is nothing
less than a sign of desperation and helplessness, and the American people should and must
look it as such a sign of the Mccain camp reaching an impasse with regards to the futile,and
prosaic ideas fro getting the American economy out of the bottomless pit that it's found itself in.
it seems to like the American people are not going this time around to be hoodwined into voting
a party that's led to the bad situation that they're.Lastly, i'm very hopful that the American
people are up to the challenge they always have.
To sump up,let's rally behind Obama and make the next president elect of the United States Of
America.KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK MR.KUPY.

By moroccanOctober 10, 2008 - 4:05pm

correction

HOODWINKED NOT HOODWINED

By moroccanOctober 10, 2008 - 4:09pm

yap, the big mo is important...

a lot of people vote for the perceived winner just to be on the winning side. perhaps most do. that's why they always ask that question in polls, "who do you think will win?"

By scottso360October 10, 2008 - 4:12pm

the barrage of negative ads won't work this time around MR.KUPY

It seems to like that what the American people are concerned about is their pocket being dug
a hole into, and certainly not who people Senator OBAMA hangs out with.

By moroccanOctober 10, 2008 - 4:22pm

the barrage of negative ads won't work this time around MR.KUPY

It seems to me like what the American people are concerned about are their pocket books
being dug a hole into, and certainly not who Senator Obama hangs out with.

By moroccanOctober 10, 2008 - 4:27pm

Danger for Obama

Since the begining of the primaries I've had my fears that someone is going to shoot at Obama.
I've heard the comments, the jokes. I still think, maybe now more strongly, that this is a possibility. The anger on the right is reaching a fever pitch. I really don't think that McCain would ever want something like that to happen, but check out his supporters. Strange times are here.

By average JamesOctober 10, 2008 - 4:29pm

I wouldn't be too concerned.


I have faith in our Secret Service.

I believe our Secret Service agents are true patriots who believe, first and foremost, in our Constitution.

I further believe they would rather DIE than suffer the embarrassment and humiliation of losing a principle.

By A GOctober 10, 2008 - 4:59pm

Danger strange times

I think you're right about the secret service, but what about the Timothy McVeigh types. Hopefully nothing like that would ever happen again. McCain and, I'm quite sure, most of his supporters are civilized enough to behave even in the face of possible defeat. I think the desperation is showing through in his campaign, and I think most of us average folks can see it. It seems hope is right around the bend and we are ready for BIG change!
Onward and upward!

By average JamesOctober 10, 2008 - 5:14pm

What about Timothy McVeigh types?


Do you really think that if a presidential candidate, under full Secret Service protection, had been in the Federal Building at Oklahoma City on that day, that a kook like Timothy McVeigh could have gotten within a mile of him with a truck bomb??

By A GOctober 10, 2008 - 5:32pm

Secret Service set Obama up.

Like I said above:

I know of at least two times they dismantled metal detectors and stopped checking people. One was at a rally in Dallas where there were 17 thousand people. Dallas of all places. When the Chief of Police asked the Secret Service who gave the order to remove the metal detectors, they would only answer the order came from "higher up".

That story was reported in two Dallas newspapers and the Dallas Chief of Police issued a statement.

By deanrddOctober 11, 2008 - 12:12am

The Republicans are actually

The Republicans are actually hoping that someone will sneak a gun in and shoot Obama. That is why McCain had to distance himself this week from those looneys, because otherwise he would be blamed for inciting them (which he did by saying nothing before).

By MichtouOctober 11, 2008 - 12:00pm

DUH!... Guess who "higher up" is??


I say again, I have faith in our Secret Service.

Call me crazy, but I believe them to be TRUE BELIEVERS who are willing to die not for a candidate, not for an idelogy, but for OUR PRESCIOUS CONSTITUTION.

Perhaps I'm way off base, but I think they "get it".

It's about preserving democracy... everything else is a detail.

By A GOctober 12, 2008 - 3:05pm

'Economists For McCain' Trash McCain's New Mortgage Plan

'Economists For McCain' Trash McCain's New Mortgage Plan
Sam Stein & Seth Colter Walls | October 10, 2008 04:18

Many of the professional economists who formally endorsed John McCain's economic plan are expressing bewilderment with his most recent proposal to rectify the home mortgage crisis.

In interviews with the Huffington Post, roughly a dozen of McCain's economist supporters said they disagreed with the Senator's recent proposal -- for the government to buy distressed mortgages at face value from banks and renegotiate them with homeowners. Several viewed it as a gimmick, driven mostly by political circumstance. Only one pro-McCain economist spoke up in favor of the plan.

"This is just political gamesmanship," said Robert H. Heidt, a professor at the Indiana University School of Law. "The bill is wildly over-ambitious in trying to rescue home buyers from the downturn in real estate appreciation. It's costs would never end. I will end up voting for McCain but this is ridiculous."

Added George Viksnins, a retired professor of economics at Georgetown University: "Even though I support McCain I think this is an ill-considered program. This was something to get press time and face time, and that is the problem with our political system. This was done as a sound bite and without analysis."

...

By f u bush2October 10, 2008 - 5:14pm

Comments

(27)